Crispy Gamer News

Analyst Michael Pachter, who some believe is the second coming, says that that the interactive entertainment is pretty much recession proof. Is the video game industry bullet proof when it comes to our lagging economy? The Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst thinks that, while there might be a slight decline in the sector for Sept., it will nonetheless be pretty darn profitable. But Pachter attributes this mostly to not having a killer app like Halo 3 to bolster software and hardware sales - at least for Microsoft and not the state of the economy or consumer confidence.

So what are his predictions for the Sept. numbers coming this Thursday from NPD? Sales will be down six percent to $620 million, compared to Sept. 2007 numbers due to no killer apps like Halo 3 - he says that if you ignore the Halo 3 effect, the numbers would show an increase of 44 percent. Other predictions include 600,000 Wii sales, 550,000 DS sales, around 300,000 Xbox 360 sales, PS3 sales of 175,000 and PSP sales of 200,000.

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Those old Houser boys are worth their weight in gold if you ask game industry executives around the world and show a potential problem for Take-Two next year when their contracts expire. Some hypothesize that this was one of the key reasons why EA has backed off acquiring Take-Two among other reasons. Analysts in particular are making great hay of this fact today, including the outspoken Wedbush Morgan analyst and part-time messiah Michael Pachter.

According to Pachter, Sam and Dan Houser could entertain other offers in February, perhaps moving on to work for another company like EA.. or Activision… or Ubisoft.. basically anyone willing to bend over backward to sign them. Take Two could learn the terrible lesson that EA learned when a number of high profile developers from the Medal of Honor team broke away to form Infinity Ward. That company went on to create some serious competition with Call of Duty, a game franchise that has gone on to beat the ever-loving piss out of the team’s former franchise.

While the brothers aren’t developers, they are the creativity (and some say the tyranny) behind the development of the Grand Theft Auto series. They are like Hollywood producers who help form and shape development into a highly polished, commercially viable product that appeals to its rabid and hardcore fan base. But imagine if the Housers walk away to EA or Activision and help create some competition for GTA. Imagine if THQ signed them and they helped shape the future of Saint’s Row or some other high profile action game.. It is all a possibility and it leaves Take-Two even more vulnerable because GTA is the company’s top source of income, or as we call it around these parts - bread and butter..

Source: GI.biz

If you didn’t happen to agree with Crispy Gamer’s pre-E3 feature, The 10 People We Hope Will Shut the F*** Up at This Year’s E3, then you might want to check out N’Gai Croal’s rebuttal, Let Them Talk.

In this editorial at Edge Online, Level Up’s N’Gai goes over the reasons why all of the industry heavyweights we mentioned in our article should never shut up. He also raises some interesting points on why developers can never jump into a public discussion and play the role of the “regular guy,” despite actually being regular guys (Dennis Dyack can tell you some war stories about that for sure). Here’s a sample from the article:

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Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter thinks E3 is dead. Like the witch under Dorothy’s house in The Wizard of Oz, E3’s candy cane colored sox are curling up and those ruby slippers are up for grabs. However, in Pachter’s latest prognostications, he includes some general advice that publishers (like EA and Ubisoft) have already delivered: the show needs to be tweaked, repositioned and moved to earlier in the year.

“The solitude of this year’s E3 made patently obvious to us that the ESA membership made a mistake in downsizing the show last year,” said Pachter.

So what’s the solution? Striking a balance between the circus of the 60,000 of the old show and the 5,000 attendees of the new one, bringing back a little bit of the glitz and glamor, and moving the show to a date that makes sense.

Source: GI.biz

Is Take-Two secretly talking with Electronic Arts behind the scenes to hammer out a deal, even while it publicly spurns their advances? Analysts say yes - and the industry’s most visible financial analyst says it with feeling:

“Of course they’re talking. They have to be talking because it’s the right thing to do,? said Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter (to Fortune) before EA’s tender offer expired last Friday.

Of course, Mr. Pachter has been wrong before and he’ll probably be wrong again, but it makes sense that there would be some continued communications between the key players of both companies. The bottom line is that Take-Two wants a bigger offer and until EA makes one, the deal will probably remain stalled. Whatever happens, we’ll keep you posted as this story continues to develop.