Ah, Opening Day. Spring is in the air, grass is turning green again, and every Major League Baseball team has a fleeting glimmer of hope that this might be the year.

It's also the time a lot of people look to pick up a new baseball game. Both MLB 09: The Show and Major League Baseball 2K9 have been available for about a month, and both have received "patches" to tweak a few issues that popped up after their release. In addition, Opening Day rosters are now available so that you can try to get the most authentic experience possible.

It's no secret that, on the field, nothing can compete with The Show. It's the Rolls Royce of console baseball, while 2K's MLB series continues to run in place.

But what about the stats?

MLB 2K9 cover boy Tim Lincecum is about as likely to win 20 games as he is to lose 15 in 2K's game.

Numbers drive baseball like no other sport, and more and more baseball gamers are looking for these games to replicate the numbers from real life. If the stats are out of whack, today's gamer will not only recognize it, but will let the company know about it via forums, emails, or ridiculous Internet petitions.

So I put these two games under the simulation microscope. The goal was not to test the long-term franchise mode play, but rather to see how well, or how strangely, the two games simulated the upcoming 2009 season. It would be easy enough to simply simulate a season, post the results and say something brilliant like "MLB 2K predicts a Red Sox World Series!" But what does that really tell you? Not much.

It should also be noted that I only used MLB 09: The Show and MLB 2K9. If you're a baseball nut and stats are more important to you than 3-D models, then you need to check out other games -- like the marvelous Out of the Park Baseball. For this little experiment, I stuck to the two big-budget behemoths.

I simulated the 2009 season with the Opening Day roster files five times for each game. I also set the injuries to "on" and the CPU trades to "on." I noted who made the playoffs each year and who won the World Series, while also keeping an eye on the statistics. The idea was to see which game has the most predictable and stable stat engine: Are there a lot of discrepancies? Do the numbers fall within reason compared to the real Major Leagues?

I paid attention to several main league leader stats: the number of .300 hitters (both AL and NL), the number of 40-plus home-run hitters, the number of 20 game-winning pitchers, the number of starting pitchers with an ERA of under 3.00, and the number of pitchers who issued at least 100 walks. I then looked at the 2008 season from the real Major Leagues to see which game came closer to the real thing.

So, let's get started!


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Major League Baseball 2K9

MLB 2K9's year-by-year standings are a bit all over the place. Here's how the standings broke down by league and division after simulating the 2009 season five times.

American League East

Tampa Bay Rays -- 2 division titles; 1 wild card

New York Yankees -- 2 division titles

Boston Red Sox -- 1 division title; 1 wild card

Toronto Blue Jays -- 1 wild card

Baltimore Orioles -- N/A

So, in MLB 2K9, the Yankees won the East twice, and missed the playoffs entirely the other three seasons. Boston only made the playoffs twice, the Rays made it three times, and the Jays snuck in once. This isn't too far from reality. It's a brutal division.

American League Central

Kansas City Royals -- 2 division titles; 1 wild card

Minnesota Twins -- 1 division title; 1 wild card

Chicago White Sox -- 1 division title

Detroit Tigers -- 1 division title

Cleveland Indians -- N/A

This one is a tad much, though. The Royals? Really? And the Tribe? The Indians get zip? If you switched the Indians and the Royals here, it would make a hell of a lot more sense.

American League West

Los Angeles Angels -- 3 division titles

Oakland A's -- 1 division title

Texas Rangers - 2 division titles

Seattle Mariners -- N/A

The Angels will likely rule the West?

Philadelphia is no match for the mighty Nationals in MLB 2K9.

National League East

Washington Nationals -- 3 division titles

Philadelphia Phillies -- 1 division title

New York Mets -- 1 division title

Atlanta Braves -- 2 wild cards

Florida Marlins -- N/A

This result might make stat heads run for cover. If the Washington Nationals win the East this year, then take cover, because it is a sign of the apocalypse. But to win it three of out five times? No way. No how.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs -- 2 division titles

Cincinnati Reds -- 2 division titles

St. Louis Cardinals -- 1 division title

Pittsburgh Pirates -- N/A

Milwaukee Brewers -- N/A

Houston Astros -- N/A

OK, the Cubbies are big favorites this year in the Central, but the Reds -- who are my team -- don't have a lot of hope in winning anything in '09, unless all of the young guys pan out. And yet, MLB 2K9 loves 'em. The Brewers get shut out? Ouch.

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers -- 2 division titles; 2 wild cards

Arizona Diamondbacks -- 1 division title

Colorado Rockies -- 1 division title

San Diego Padres -- 1 division title

San Francisco Giants -- 1 wild card

Ah, the NL West. Throw a dart at the board; see what sticks -- even though the Dodgers are clearly the class here.

There are some obvious red flags with these results. The Royals and Nationals stick out like a sore thumb, and so do the Reds to a somewhat lesser degree. I can see Cincinnati maybe getting a wild card -- but two titles in five tries?

The big problem with the standings test is that a team might win 95 games one year, and then 65 the next. The Cubs are the class of their division, and did mange two titles, but they also played two seasons, injury-free, and won 67 and 71 games respectively. That is really, really hard to accept.

World Series

Here's how the five World Series matchups played out in MLB 2K9:

Yankees over Giants, 4 games to 3

Twins over Braves, 4 games to 3

Reds over Red Sox, 4 games to 3

White Soxover Dodgers, 4 games to 3

Royals over Cardinals, 4 games to 1

Royals and Reds ?wow.

MLB 09: The Show

Now it's The Show's turn:

The Rays are a consistent force in MLB 09: The Show.

American League East

Tampa Bay Rays -- 3 division titles; 1 wild card

Boston Red Sox -- 2 division title; 3 wild card

New York Yankees -- 1 wild card

Toronto Blue Jays -- N/A

Baltimore Orioles -- N/A

This was basically a back-and-forth between the Rays and the Red Sox, with the Yankees playing bridesmaid nearly every season. In fact, in one test sim, the Yankees won 93 games and missed the wild card by one game. It's not that the Yanks were bad -- the Rays and Sox were just consistently better.

American League Central

Cleveland Indians -- 4 division titles

Minnesota Twins - 1 division title

Kansas City Royals -- N/A

Chicago White Sox -- N/A

Detroit Tigers -- N/A

This makes more sense than the MLB 2K9 output, even though the Indians dominated the results. The Twins were always close, as were the Tigers, but the Tribe kept them at bay by a few games in nearly every sim. The one time the Indians failed to win the title, they had an off year and won just 83 games.

American League West

Los Angeles Angels -- 4 division titles

Oakland A's -- 1 division title

Texas Rangers -- N/A

Seattle Mariners -- N/A

Just like in MLB 2K9, the Angels ruled the West.

The Mets, according to The Show, are the class of the NL East.

National League East

New York Mets -- 3 division titles; 1 wild card

Philadelphia Phillies -- 1 division title; 1 wild card

Atlanta Braves -- 1 division title

Washington Nationals -- N/A

Florida Marlins -- N/A

Again, The Show 09 provides more believable numbers, as the Mets and Phillies were clearly the teams to beat here, with the Braves always flirting with the playoffs and managing to squeeze one title out of it. As for the Nationals? They were cellar-dwellers, which is -- sorry, Washington fans -- where they will likely finish in 2009.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs -- 5 division titles

St. Louis Cardinals -- 1 wild card

Cincinnati Reds -- N/A

Pittsburgh Pirates -- N/A

Milwaukee Brewers -- N/A

Houston Astros -- N/A

The Cubbies absolutely dominated the Central in every sim. In fact, it was never all that close; and in one season Chicago managed to win 114 games. The game loves the Cubs ? in the regular season, anyway. The Reds are also back to reality in The Show 09.

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers -- 4 division titles

Arizona Diamondbacks -- 1 division title; 2 wild cards

Colorado Rockies -- N/A

San Diego Padres -- N/A

San Francisco Giants -- N/A

The Dodgers were runaway winners in the West, but Arizona also played well in nearly every sim, securing three playoff appearances.

World Series

Here's how the five World Series matchups played out in The Show 09:

Braves over Rays, 4 games to 3

Rays over Dodgers, 4 games to 1

Indians over Phillies, 4 games to 3

Red Sox over Mets, 4 games to 1

Red Sox over Dodgers, 4 games to 0

This looks a bit better. But note: The Cubs made the playoffs in every single test sim and never, not once, made the World Series. Is this game accurate or what?

Analysis

The Yanks aren't celebrating after the five-year The Show 09 sim test -- only one playoff berth.

If you want the best teams to win more often, The Show 09 is the clear "winner." You can make the case that it's a bit too predictable -- with the Cubs, Indians, Dodgers and Angels winning their respective divisions in four out of the five test sims (with the Cubs winning all five) and several teams getting nowhere near a playoff spot.

On the other hand, MLB 2K9 trying to convince any fan that both the Royals and Nationals have as good a chance at the postseason as any other team in baseball -- well, that just doesn't fly. Of course, five test sims isn't a huge sample, but the wild fluctuations in not only the team standings but also the individual player stats is a bit disconcerting.

The Stats

Before we get into the stats for the categories tracked, let's check what the real 2008 numbers in Major League Baseball were, so that we can gauge what the MLB 2K and The Show stats are saying.

MLB 2008 Season

.300 hitters: 29

40-plus home runs: 2

20 game-winners: 4

ERA under 3.00: 7

100-plus walks issued: 3

Here we have the numbers for MLB 2K9 and MLB 09: The Show listed as averages for the combined five-season sim.


MLB 2K9

.300 hitters: 35

40-plus home runs: 3

20 game-winners: 2

ERA under 3.00: 2

100-plus walks issued: 18

MLB 09: The Show

.300 hitters: 32

40-plus home runs: 10

20 game-winners: 2

ERA under 3.00: 7

100-plus walks issued: 1

Analysis

As you can see, most of the numbers are in line with 2008 Major League norms. The outliers are the strangely high walk numbers from pitchers in MLB 2K9, as well as a greater penchant for the long ball in The Show 09. Perhaps these inflated walk numbers are the reason some pitchers have oddball seasons from time to time. This is really the biggest issue with the stat engine in MLB 2K9 -- pitchers are likely to throw in clunker seasons for no good reason. In one test sim, Sabathia went 21-9 with a 2.99 ERA, a very probable season for him. In the next sim, however, he had a 9-19 season with a 5.44 ERA. Bad seasons happen from time to time, but in 2K9 they happen with a bit too much regularity -- hence the wild swings in the standings.

On the other hand, The Show 09's numbers remain fairly consistent. You'll see some variety in the numbers here and there, but not as many head-scratching seasons as you are likely to see in MLB 2K9. There are more home runs, however -- not a lot more, but closer to a few years ago than what we see today. Team ERA is also a shade lower in The Show 09, as relief pitchers are almost a bit too predictable.

In the end, if stats are what you're after -- buy a text sim like Out of the Park Baseball. But if you're looking for the best of both worlds -- on-the-field gameplay and a believable statistics model -- MLB 09: The Show is clearly the best option. As much as I'd like to see the Reds beat the Red Sox in the 2009 Series -- something tells me that's only going to be possible in the world of 2K Sports.