Ah, the first-quarter doldrums... It's time of year when the good games spigot stops flowing so torrentially and we can catch up on that backlog of holiday hits. It's also the time of year when we game journalists put together the obligatory "Most Anticipated Games of the Year" lists. These lists are a lot of fun and a good way to guide coverage and reader interest for the coming year. But what do these lists look like with the benefit of hindsight? Did the games on these lists deserve our anticipation, or were we distracted by the shiny, shiny hype train? In short, how well did our collective expectations conform with our final evaluations?

I decided to find out by looking at a bunch of "most anticipated" game lists from 2008, and seeing how they stand up to the test of time. The result is the below list of "Crystal Ball" awards for interesting, confusing or otherwise noteworthy picks made roughly 12 months ago. Enjoy the list, and keep it in mind when you're reading all those "Most Anticipated Games of 2009" lists.

"No Duh" Award: Grand Theft Auto IV

Look, you can steal cars and run from cops! Just like those other games! This is gonna be GREAT!

Was there ever an easier choice for a year-starting list? After Grand Theft Auto IV was pushed back from a late-2007 release, GamePro, IGN, MSNBC, GameDaily, 1UP, GameTrailers, CheatCC and TeamXbox all publicly declared their anticipation for the game months before its April release. In fact, I couldn't find a single major list from 2008 that didn't include this game.

And why not? The PlayStation 2 Grand Theft Auto games sold roughly a bajillion copies, and changed the way a generation of gamers looked at games. That everyone would look forward to the continuation of the series seems like a no-brainer. Still, I can't help but think much, if not most, of the anticipation for GTA IV was based primarily on the series' pedigree rather than on an evaluation of the new game. As IGN's Chris Roper succinctly put it: "It's Grand Theft Auto IV. On the PlayStation 3. Does anything else really need to be said?"

Does picking sequels based on their series' history do any service to gamers? Did this wave of history-based anticipation for GTA IV have a hand in the chorus of perfect review scores the game eventually got (review scores that some editors said they later regretted)? Hmm...

Misplaced Enthusiasm Award (Individual): IGN's Nate Ahearn

Only in America... could someone be excited for this game.

In January, Ahearn was definitely excited about Don King Presents: Prizefighter and its promise to let players "overcome adverse situations, avoid temptation ... and be mindful of the balance between training, promotion and advancing through the rankings." By the time Prizefighter came out in June, though, Ahearn's 5/10 review acknowledged the final game's "poorly constructed gameplay" and "just plain ugly" presentation. Don't feel bad, guy ... we all buy into the hype sometimes, and like you say in the review, the game "had serious potential." Too bad that potential has to be expressed in the past tense, though, eh?

Misplaced Enthusiasm Award (Collective): Star Wars: The Force Unleashed

Haven't we, as a species, evolved to the point where we can stop being excited about Star Wars stuff?

This one probably seemed like a safe pick at the start of 2008, what with the coveted Star Wars license, the highly destructible environments and the highly destructive Force powers of the Apprentice. So it's not that surprising that GamePro, GameDaily, IGN, CheatCC, 1UP and TeamXbox all had the game on their "most anticipated" lists. More surprising was the review scores the game eventually got from those anticipating outlets: 3.5/5, 7/10, 7.3/10, 4.3/5, "C" and 7.7/10, respectively. Not awful scores, for sure, but definitely not the kind that would justify such massive anticipation. Just goes to show you that high expectations can be a double-edged sword when review time comes around...

Sleeper Hit Award: Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4

Look into my eyes ... when I snap my fingers, you will get excited about Persona 5. *snap*

You'd think a game that ended up earning the 10th-highest review marks of 2008 (according to GameRankings) would have had the game press salivating at the beginning of the year. Not so -- despite the critical acclaim, Persona 4 made it onto a grand total of zero year-starting anticipation lists, as far as I can tell. And this is despite the game being the sequel to Persona 3, a similarly well-received sleeper hit from 2007. With two excellent, recent, under-hyped games in its corner, will this niche role-playing series finally break into the big time on 2009's lists? Don't bet on it...

"Where Is It Already?" Award: Ghostbusters: The Video Game

In this screen, the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man represents the hopes and dreams of game fans everywhere.

Truthfully, this award could go to a lot of games that were anticipated for 2008 but didn't make it out before year's end. The Agency, Killzone 2, Saboteur, Resident Evil 5, Infamous, Prototype, Borderlands, Halo Wars, Indiana Jones, Final Fantasy XIII, Alan Wake and StarCraft II all showed up on at least one most-anticipated list in 2008 despite not showing up on store shelves that year. A few of those games were even making repeat appearances from 2007 anticipation lists -- that's over 24 months of anticipation, with no return on the investment! Ghostbusters ends up winning this year's award, though, for dashing the 2008 hopes of IGN, GamePro, MSNBC, GameDaily and TeamXbox with its tardiness. Makes you wonder which highly anticipated game of 2009 we won't be seeing until 2010 or beyond...

Originality Award: GamerNode

Silly GamerNode. Why are you getting excited about a game like Saboteur? It's not even part of an established franchise!

This site gets special mention here for constructing a top-10 list entirely out of games with original intellectual property -- no sequels or pre-packaged licenses allowed. It's a decent list, too, with quite a few of the year's best-received games on it. That said, four of the 10 games on the list -- Saboteur, Br?tal Legend, White Knight Chronicles and Prototype -- didn't manage to come out in 2008. Say what you will about cookie-cutter sequels and licensed games, but they do generally tend to make it onto store shelves promptly.

Honesty Award: IGN's Chris Roper

No, this box isn't real, but in early 2008 just the possibility of it was enough to get excited about.

A special award for his special explanation of why he was anticipating what was then known as Guitar Hero IV. "We know nothing about the fourth game in the series aside from the fact that it's coming, and that's enough for me."

"Better Late than Never" Award: GameSpot

Maybe we should all wait until E3 to see what games are really worth looking forward to...

Maybe the title of this award should be the "Better Late Than Early" award, as GameSpot waited until just before July's Electronic Entertainment Expo and just before the start of the busy holiday season to release its dual 2008 anticipation lists. Sure, these lists might not be as forward-looking as the ones released earlier in the year, but they do have the critical advantage of superior access and information on their side. As the above awards should show, it's incredibly hard to accurately predict what will be the best games of the year from the vantage point of January. Maybe we should all cool our heels and just wait until these games are closer to release (or, even better, actually out) before we start looking forward to them.