Crispy Gamer

Frisky Business: Gaming in a Recession: Boom or Bust?

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Pop quiz, friends: Skyrocketing gas prices, free-falling home sales, rising airline ticket fees, increasing consumer discontent, tightening credit reserves, and even everyday eggs whose cost nearly rivals the Faberge kind? What do all these things have in common?



If you answered "they're all huge pains in the butt," pat yourself on the back, grab a cold one and sit this round out -- we don't stand for smart-alecks around these parts, Scrappy. But if you responded "they all point to a major downturn in the U.S. economy," stand up, take a bow, grand a handkerchief and start sobbing -- you've just joined the other 79 to 84 percent of Americans that think we're in or heading toward a major recession.



So why bring all this up, especially at such a sensitive moment? Simple: Given how healthy the gaming business has become, there's no better time to recall that, despite recent setbacks, our favorite hobby isn't going anywhere, and -- current financial conditions aside -- may in fact be on the verge of entering a renaissance period while other industries decline. As those of you who didn't have a chance to watch the fallout from the dot-com bust may have missed, when other fields suffer, interactive entertainment often greatly benefits at their expense. A morbid observation, yes, but think on the positive side, it's also one that's bound to have positive, lasting ramifications for anyone who spends most of their life behind an Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3 controller.



Before getting in too deep though, first, a few sobering facts to put things in perspective?



According to a recent Associated Press poll, a full 60 percent of shoppers say they won't buy a house in the next two years; 25 percent of homeowners polled expect their domicile to actually lose value over that period. Interest rates are at their lowest point since 2004, and the Federal Reserve, which has been cutting them since September in hopes of spurring a sluggish market, has been more aggressive than at any point in the last quarter-century. What's more, from UBS to Citigroup (which recently posted a $10 billion Q4 2007 loss -- the worst in the company's history), even many of the world's most staid banking institutions are taking it on the chin.



Now, a few additional points of data that may actually convince you to perk up and take your eyes off Mario Kart Wii for a split second?



Activision -- hot off a record 92 percent net revenue increase (to a whopping $2.9 billion) in fiscal year 2008 -- has already been given the go-ahead by the European Commission to merge with Blizzard, forming a multi-platform publishing superpower to rival third-party development giant Electronic Arts. Grand Theft Auto IV just shifted 6 million copies in its first week at retail, generating $500 million -- of which $310 million, or 3.6 million units, was moved on day one, earning it a Guinness World Record for the highest revenue generated by ANY entertainment product in 24 hours, surpassing even "Spider-Man 3" and Harry Potter. Better yet, recent NPD surveys further show that over half of consumers polled say that, recession or no, they're least likely to cut back spending on daily indulgences, with toys, movies and, yes, videogames sitting high atop that list.



The takeaway from this is merely a clear reminder that people love such escapes, and investors adore companies that post big profits (and bigger headlines), especially in times of turmoil. All of this means that, despite the odd hiccup -- see EA's recent earnings report, a mixed message if ever there was one -- chances are, it's about to be "game on" in a big way for the interactive entertainment business, ushering in one of the liveliest periods in PC and videogame history.



Already, we're seeing the effects, as new startup publishers like Brash Entertainment, GreenScreen Games, Play Hard Sports and 38 Studios speed towards critical mass. Casual games -- an industry expected to be generating $2.3 billion by 2012 -- are also on a meteoric rise, with original entries such as Nintendo's Wii Fit (already a bestseller in Japan and Europe) only further serving to illustrate their potential to broaden the entire market. Women and seniors rank among the hobby's fastest growing audiences, helping swell the ranks of joystick-twiddling fans to record proportions as well. No matter where you look -- cell phones, handhelds, Facebook, online portals like Shockwave and Kongregate, GameTap, news outlets like CNN or The New York Times, Microsoft's Zune music player -- it suddenly takes just seconds to find electronic amusements. With 10 million subscribers, some MMOs such as World of Warcraft now shockingly generate more profit in any given 12-month period than certain third-world nations.



Even with the field expected to grow only 13 percent this year (down from 22 percent in 2007) to $17.9 billion by the Consumer Electronics Association, that figure's nothing short of stunning when you consider how many industries are struggling just to keep the lights on at this point. Keep in mind that total doesn't include the 10-figure returns generated by a thriving Internet scene filled with indie games, episodic titles, ad-supported offerings, microtransaction-based outings and more, nor does it take into account digital distribution services like Xbox Live Arcade, PlayStation Network and Nintendo's Virtual Console or recently-launched WiiWare, all of which have been delivering some serious fun and entertainment value lately.



Still not convinced we're on the verge of something big? Consider that with games coming in a greater range of shapes, sizes, styles and lengths; being delivered at a broader scope of price points scaling from an average $30 to $60 on down to free; and appealing to a wider range of people, it's easy to see the writing on the wall. Do the math: Even at a conservative 20 hours of play per title, even today's most expensive outings deliver more bang for the buck ($60 for 20 hours of entertainment = $3 per hour) than comparable forms of entertainment, i.e. the average summer blockbuster ($10 ticket for two hours' screen time = $5 per hour).



Let's not forget two other important factors, either. Rising costs at the gas pumps are forcing more people to stay home and seek amusement in the living room. Likewise, games are simultaneously becoming more expandable, with titles such as Super Smash Bros. and Call of Duty 4 offering user-generated levels or map pack add-ons aplenty, extending replay value by huge orders of magnitude. (Rock Band's already surpassed the 6 million song download mark in just six months.) Combine them, and what you get is a scenario -- captive audience with a pressing need to stretch every dollar plus arresting diversions which offer cash-strapped shoppers unrivaled bang for the buck -- that's ripe for game makers to ride straight to the cash register.



The important point here is not so much the actual dollars and cents generated by these pursuits, but rather the sheer amount of opportunity they create for both developers and fans to celebrate such a wonderful medium. Remember: At heart, gaming is a business, and the better it performs financially, the more manpower, creativity and resources the people producing the titles that fill store shelves (or Steam's virtual readouts) are willing to afford the industry. As such, while we can't say with 100 percent certainty that, say, Midway won't go the way of Pets.com in the near future, we'll gladly stand behind the following statement:



While financial troubles mount for other sectors, the next two years are all but certain to be among the most vibrant, innovative and prolific in gaming industry. In essence, from greater selection to more interesting choices, titles that better suit your lifestyle and budget, and software that truly pushes boundaries, it's a splendid time to be a PC-/console-owing FPS or RPG addict. And yes, mi amigos, you can damn sure bank on that.